Forecasting Models/ Time Series
Adel Gardoon; Nader Khedri; Ali Mahmoodi; Mehdi Basert
Abstract
Purpose: Financial statements are the main decision-making bases of capital market actors; which is affected by internal and external factors. Uncertainty in other markets is one of the most important factors affecting the financial statements of listed companies. As a result, the aim of the current ...
Read More
Purpose: Financial statements are the main decision-making bases of capital market actors; which is affected by internal and external factors. Uncertainty in other markets is one of the most important factors affecting the financial statements of listed companies. As a result, the aim of the current research is to model the spillover of uncertainties of parallel markets on the types of profit management.Methodology: The present research is practical. The research period is a 10-year period with seasonal data between 2011 and 2021. VAR-MGARCH model has been used to investigate the spillover of uncertainties of parallel markets on the types of profit management.Findings: Based on the results of VECH, CCC, BEKK and DCC models to extract the uncertainty of the studied variables; VECH models had higher accuracy. Based on the results of multivariate GARCH models, the spillover effect between different markets was observed. As a result, the uncertainty of one market strengthens the uncertainty between other markets. Based on the results of vector autoregression model; Uncertainties of variables have a stronger effect on accrual profit management than actual profit management. The results of variance analysis show the fact that oil price uncertainty has the highest contribution in the interpretation of real profit management change and exchange rate uncertainty in the interpretation of accrual profit management change.Originality/Value: Uncertainties of parallel markets reinforce each other and increase the level of profit management in the investigated companies.